Microsoft published a couple of step-by-step guides for sys admins. I think I saw some of them on Technet before. This page lists many important guides as Word files. When I skimmed over the titles, I realized that there are quite a few new things to learn for sysops. This reminds me of a remark Bill Gates made some years ago. He said that in the future Windows will be so easy to manage that there will be less need for system administrators.
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At least, this is how I remember it. Then, there was this Zero Administration Initiative in 1996. Now, more than a decade later, what is left of this “zero administration”? In my view, things are getting more complicated every year in Windows administration. Ten years ago, I was able to stay informed easily about everything in detail. Nowadays, I am often only able to scratch the surface.
There are five times more IT professionals working in my department now. This is not only due to the fact that things got more complicated, but also because IT plays a more important role now. I think that any kind of prediction in IT more than a year ahead has a probability of almost 100 percent, to be wrong.
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Some days ago, a German management consultancy predicted that until 2011 about 120,000 IT jobs will be cut down in Germany because of outsourcing, offshoring and efficiency increase. In my opinion such predictions are just wild speculation. Nobody can know what kind of inventions will be made next year that might revolutionize everything we know about IT today. Maybe 300,000 jobs will be cut down; maybe we need 500,000 new IT professionals until 2011. Nobody can foretell that, not even Bill Gates.