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I admit this was an ill-matched fight. Only 16% of 4sysops readers believe that the iPad, or tablets in general, will replace the PC. How could I ask such a silly question? On the other hand, no less a man than the fabulous mastermind Steve Jobs, elected as the most powerful business person, made this prediction.
Could it be that that was just another sales pitch for the iPad? I think, we can rule out this option. Steve Jobs is a marketing machine, but his ego is more important to him than a few more sold iPads. This was a video interview that was seen by millions of his admirers and opponents. He can’t just use the excuse later that a journalist misinterpreted him.
And the fact that he came up with this agrarian society analogy indicates that this idea wasn’t created in his mastermind during the interview. Obviously, he has been thinking about this one for a while.
So could it be that the Apple boss is wrong this time? Do 300 IT pros know more about the future of the computer than the iPod, iTunes, iPhone, and iPad inventor?
I guess many of you who voted “no” wondered, how you could get some serious work done on a computer without a keyboard. The iPad has a nice onscreen keyboard, but this only useful for typing short texts.
Steve Jobs once said that Americans have stopped reading. Since the US is always years ahead of the rest of the world, then maybe this means that Facebook and Twitter will replace all text forms that are longer than a few lines. And in such a world an iPad is the perfect device and its onscreen keyboard is certainly sufficient.
Well, Steve Jobs also predicted that Amazon’s Kindle would fail. Maybe he meant this would only happen after the iPad was released, or maybe a journalist just misunderstood him. (Does anyone know a video interview where he made those claims?)
Anyway, I doubt that Americans have stopped reading, and Apple wouldn’t start selling eBooks if Steve Jobs really believes that. So on what devices will all these books that Apple wants to sell be written? How can he predict that the most powerful information production tool the world has ever seen will be replaced by such a tiny toy?
I believe what Jobs had in mind is this new flexibility that people want now. The iPhone taught them that having access to the Internet wherever they are is not only cool but also very useful. But the iPhone has severe limitations here because of its small screen. The iPad is small enough to fit easily in every bag, and it is big enough to chat on Facebook, read the New York Times, or edit a spreadsheet with Google docs.
It is only a matter of years that, thanks to 4G, high-speed Internet will be available in every corner of the world for almost no cost. People will then want devices that are much lighter than PCs, even lighter than netbooks, and more importantly, devices that can also be used without a table or without pressing your knees together like an anxious virgin.
The main point here is that literally everyone will have such a device, just like everyone has a mobile phone today. Foldable displays are only a few years away; this means that the future iPad will need no more space than the iPhone today yet it will still have a big screen.
I think, the missing keyboard is not the issue here. If you need one, you can connect your foldable keyboard or just dictate your text because the next iPad will be powerful enough to support speech recognition.
But why would the iPad replace the PC? Can’t I still have a PC at home or on my desk at work? Maybe. But did you notice that most people no longer buy desktops and switched to laptops? Why? Because of the better mobility. The iPad is just the next step in this direction, thinks Steve Jobs.
I must confess, I didn’t vote this time simply because I don’t know the answer to the question in this poll. (I forgot to add this option.) I think, there is a good chance that new types of applications will require devices that are more powerful than a pocket computer (3D, virtual reality, new input devices like Kinect, etc.). Large portions of these applications will run in the cloud, but it is possible that a fair amount of the computational power will still be needed at the user’s end point.
So what do you think? Are you one of the 3 million people who already bought an iPad?
PS: If it makes you feel more comfortable, you can replace “iPad” with “Windows tablet” at most occurrences in this text without changing the meaning.
PS2: Also check this out: iPad, Tablet To Cannibalize Notebook, Netbook Sales
That’s the wrong question to ask. The iPad still depends on a PC for updates. The question is what tasks do you do daily that are done poorly on a PC that the iPad might be better at. As an iPad owner I haven’t replaced my PC. I just use my PC for far fewer daily tasks.
In fact the PC has taken on additional tasks as a server platform for all the satellite devices in the house. The two devices complement each other very well.
I preordered an iPad (wasn’t ready to pay upmarks for imports). Got it in the mail the day it was launched. Played with it for a week. The next week, i had to force myself to use it, because i always had my work laptop out as soon as i got home.
The following two weeks, it spent it’s time gathering dust in my living room.
Last Friday, i sold it to a coworker who wanted one, for 50 CHF off.
It doesn’t help me at work, and it doesn’t help me in leisure time. I love my iPhone and i still think it’s the best smartphone out today (WP7 may change that), but i see no use for the iPad for my use cases.
I note there a number of cheap ipad alternatives on the market already. The iped for $105 USD and the epad for about $199 USD.
Whether or not these or desktops will be down to what processor and graphics capabilities can be put in them but also whether phone companies go greedy on internet charges.
If people start buying to cheaper alternatives then it will be many years, possibly even a decade or two before an ipad type device replaces a PC. The alternatives let alone the ipad will not be powerful enough and internet costs will make cloud computing an un-viable option.
ps. A fair whack of people were quick to say that the home theater would replace the traditional PC. That argument was about 5 years ago.
Only when we can have a file management system integrated, in my opinion.
Shock me, the iPad still depends on a PC for updates? I guess if Steve Jobs knew about this, he would be shocked.
Lukas, usually iPad owners proudly tell you another story. They tell you that they stopped using their Kindle and their laptop. But often these stories remind me of kids who are fascinated by their new toys. After some weeks everything is back to normal. In my case the list of things I can do with a PC but not with an iPad is quite long. However, this could change very soon. Let’s not forget that this concept of Internet-based devices (or shall we call them cloud interfaces?) is relatively new.
Moiecoute, the question if a new technology will replace an old one can’t be answered by referring to related historical developments. Of course, you can also find countless cases were an old technology was replaced. Who still uses cassette decks? And yes, people predicted that the cassette will be replaced by the CD and now the CD will be replaced by the Internet. I think Internet costs will soon be negligible . And the fact that cheaper iPad alternatives will be available soon will only accelerate this development. Microsoft has to be quick now otherwise they will face the same problems as in the mobile phone market.
Sir, do end users really need files? Doesn’t make it more sense to store your information in a database in the cloud?
I’m shocked shocked that PC use was going on here!
I think people are a bit fixated on the idea that keyboard data entry in a windowed GUI is the only form of “real” work that can be accomplished with a notebook, desktop, or tablet. Even on the desktop, still and motion graphics manage to get done even with a keyboard and mouse in the way.
The hardware keyboard is an awesome tool with a severe design flaw that we have all adapted to with differing levels of success. Even so, it would be extraordinarily difficult to replace without a deformable surface to provide tactile feedback. For this reason alone the PC will not be replaced anytime soon. But as you suggest, we just use it less.