Given the points you made, on the average user desk we now have:
- cheap terabyte,
- cheap gigahz multi processor CPU’s typcially at 1% utilization
- gigabyte networkds to connect the desktops

has anyone discussed doing cloud computing inside the corporate firewalls. Make use of that massive under-utilized computing resource sitting on the average workers desktop.

Years ago I programmed an application running on a Tandem system. Great stuff, parallel processing, auto failover of all resources, many networked CPU’s. Great stuff. The root of everything implied in cloud computing.

Derek, it is not my view that software will become an unimportant add-on. That is Nicolas Carr’s famous stance. The news sites were full of this stuff when he published his new book a few months ago. Thus, it seems that many takes him seriously.

The reason why I am quite skeptical about theories predicting that Windows will disappear is because the list of this so-called Windows rivals is getting longer and longer: OS/2, Apple, Open Source/Linux, Thin Clients, Net Computers, Java, Netscape Navigator… I am sure I forgot a few of them. This “Microsoft has a serious problem” talk is as old as Microsoft. All these rival technologies had their hype phase, but Windows is still here. Perhaps, one day one of Microsoft’s competitors will understand that it doesn’t make sense to always re-invent IT. If you seriously want to compete with Microsoft, you need a fat and sophisticated desktop OS that runs on all kinds of hardware. It is as simple as that.

As to mobile devices, they certainly have a great future. I have one myself and can’t imagine living without it anymore. But guess what OS is running on my smartphone? Yes, Windows. I just read that Windows Mobile outperformed the overall market.

The PC, the OS, maintenance, most TCO positions. Will it happen tomorrow? No. I don’t think anyone is really making that argument. However, it evolve into something that will replace Windows, and really all desktop computing. Without doubt. Why? Because people buy computers and software to do communicate, work and play and anything and everything that interferes with that basic proposition is subject to resistance. The strength, up to now and in the short-term future, of Windows was that it offered the best balance of capabilities verses costs (money and time).

As netbooks/iPhones/whatever become more and more capable of legitimately taking on Word, Outlook and every other desktop application–again, not today–at lower costs, market forces will transition over and the importance of Windows–and every other “desktop OS”–will lessen. There will simply be too much benefit and lower costs not to make the transition.

You’re right in the short term–all these FUD around cloud computing is real and there are problems to overcome. But, given time and development, Windows will eventually loose this war. Just as Windows replaced the myriad of inferior choices in the 80s, so to will the market evolve to require its replacement.